Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.152980 0.181196 0.214368 0.256566 0.309277 0.373553 4.587980e-01
2025-07-27 0.124284 0.160686 0.208409 0.276811 0.374449 0.512171 7.274459e-01
2025-08-03 0.101930 0.141922 0.199522 0.291411 0.440031 0.681908 1.130531e+00
2025-08-10 0.081958 0.121508 0.183281 0.291714 0.488672 0.857072 1.672306e+00
2025-08-17 0.065324 0.102129 0.163765 0.281527 0.519506 1.028294 2.376417e+00
2025-08-24 0.055405 0.091236 0.155530 0.289476 0.592485 1.343609 3.806072e+00
2025-08-31 0.047454 0.081894 0.147735 0.296567 0.672518 1.757245 6.256944e+00
2025-09-07 0.041267 0.074367 0.141515 0.305698 0.768622 2.334526 1.082509e+01
2025-09-14 0.036187 0.067841 0.135673 0.314353 0.875589 3.113483 1.956057e+01
2025-09-21 0.031171 0.060356 0.125800 0.309407 0.943223 3.883282 3.330953e+01
2025-09-28 0.025106 0.049461 0.105429 0.267982 0.859717 3.858232 4.035512e+01
2025-10-05 0.022555 0.045797 0.101556 0.273830 0.964891 5.108850 8.109153e+01
2025-10-12 0.020577 0.043195 0.100125 0.288858 1.137762 7.422850 2.171390e+02
2025-10-19 0.018913 0.040996 0.099250 0.306454 1.355914 11.179678 7.562573e+02
2025-10-26 0.017248 0.038459 0.096793 0.318006 1.571254 16.461151 3.375409e+03
2025-11-02 0.015404 0.035102 0.091063 0.314321 1.700631 22.004514 1.703662e+04
2025-11-09 0.013587 0.031484 0.083617 0.300058 1.747141 27.096910 1.066963e+05
2025-11-16 0.012464 0.029527 0.080913 0.306032 1.973659 40.081749 2.088653e+07
2025-11-23 0.011470 0.027736 0.078283 0.311428 2.222939 60.353198 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010633 0.026239 0.076261 0.319268 2.533451 95.771912 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009886 0.024863 0.074308 0.326829 2.883141 156.941465 NaN
2025-12-14 0.009037 0.023039 0.070257 0.320393 3.061367 225.205200 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007812 0.019908 0.060671 0.276346 2.633459 191.709931 NaN